Statistical analysis of the remaining human life expectancy. Mathematical models of the type Gompertz-Makeham and others
Abstract
Many researchers believe that human lifetime on the interval (30,80) years is described by the Gompertz-Makeham distribution. In this work, the task is set to test this hypothesis. We consider a number of distributions: Gompertz-Makeham, Gompertz-Weibull, Logistic Kannisto-Makeham, Logistic Beard-Makeham and Logistic Beard-Weibull, some of which are partially known, for which comparative calculations on real mortality data are performed using the $\chi^2$ criterion. The data were selected for three countries: England \& Wales, Norway and Sweden, cohorts born in 1900. As it turned out, on the interval (30,80) years the Gompertz-Makeham distribution is far from being the best among those listed above. In addition, for the same data, a similar problem was studied for the interval (80,120) years.